Adewale Abass Adekunle*

Department of Banking and Finance, Faculty of Management Sciences, Osun State University, Osogbo, Nigeria.

Adewole Joseph Adeyinka

Department of Banking and Finance, Faculty of Management Sciences, Osun State University, Osogbo, Nigeria.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.19184/jauj.v22i2.46740

ABSTRACT 

This study examines the impact of stock market indicators on economic growth in Nigeria. The research used an expo-facto design and purposive sampling, employing ARDL to analyze the effects of stock market indicators on Nigeria's economic growth. Data was sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The overall findings revealed correlation value of 0.628 which indicate a moderate positive correlation between the predictors Equity (LEQ), Corporate Bond (LCB), All-Share Index (LALS), and Inflation (INFLA) and GDP. The study also revealed F statistic of 4.237 with a significance level of 0.009 which confirms that the model is statistically significant, meaning that there is significant relationship between the dependent and independent variables. The study recommendations that the policymaker should not only rely on the value of bond as the driver on economic growth in Nigeria. The investors can be encouraged to diversify their investment across different asset classes which serve as long-term investment strategy rather than focusing on the stock market equities. This is because the economic cycle and market trend can change over time and this will mitigate risk that is associated with volatile equity market and take into account broader economic trend and potential growth over time. The Nigeria stock market regulators should always review rules and regulations guiding the activities of buying and selling on the market in order to promote efficiency in price movement of stock market.

Keywords: Share Indexes; Gross Domestic Product; Stock Market Corporate Bonds; Stock Market Equities.

ABSTRAK

Penelitian ini mengkaji dampak indikator pasar saham terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Nigeria. Penelitian ini menggunakan desain ex post facto dan teknik purposive sampling, dengan menerapkan model ARDL untuk menganalisis pengaruh indikator pasar saham terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Nigeria. Data diperoleh dari Statistical Bulletin Bank Sentral Nigeria.  Hasil penelitian secara keseluruhan menunjukkan nilai korelasi sebesar 0,628 yang mengindikasikan adanya korelasi positif moderat antara variabel prediktor, yaitu Ekuitas (LEQ), Obligasi Korporasi (LCB), Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (All-Share Index/ASI) (LALS), dan Inflasi (INFLA) terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB). Penelitian ini juga menunjukkan nilai statistik F sebesar 4,237 dengan tingkat signifikansi 0,009, yang menegaskan bahwa model tersebut signifikan secara statistik, sehingga terdapat hubungan yang signifikan antara variabel dependen dan variabel independen. Rekomendasi penelitian ini menyatakan bahwa pembuat kebijakan sebaiknya tidak hanya mengandalkan nilai obligasi sebagai penggerak pertumbuhan ekonomi di Nigeria. Investor dapat didorong untuk melakukan diversifikasi investasi ke berbagai kelas aset sebagai strategi investasi jangka panjang, dibandingkan hanya berfokus pada saham di pasar modal. Hal ini disebabkan oleh siklus ekonomi dan tren pasar yang dapat berubah dari waktu ke waktu, sehingga diversifikasi dapat mengurangi risiko yang terkait dengan volatilitas pasar saham serta mempertimbangkan tren ekonomi yang lebih luas dan potensi pertumbuhan di masa depan. Selain itu, regulator pasar modal Nigeria sebaiknya secara berkelanjutan meninjau kembali aturan dan regulasi yang mengatur aktivitas jual beli di pasar guna meningkatkan efisiensi pergerakan harga saham.

Keywords: Indek Saham; Produk Domestik Bruto; Pasar Saham Obligasi Perusahaan; Pasar Modal Ekuitas.

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